Our article explores a simple mean reversion trading strategy applied to FX futures, focusing on identifying undervalued and overvalued currencies to generate returns. Using FX futures rather than spot rates allows for the inclusion of interest rate differentials, simplifying the analysis. The strategy employs two position-sizing methods—linear and exponential—both rebalanced monthly based on currency deviations from their mean. While the linear method offers stability, its returns are limited. In contrast, the exponential method, despite higher risk and deeper drawdowns, ultimately delivers stronger growth and better overall performance by leveraging the mean reversion tendencies of FX pairs.

Over the past few years, significant shifts in the financial landscape have reshaped the dynamics of global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector. Events such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation rates, the soft landing scenario in the US economy, and the recent Bitcoin halving have all profoundly impacted market sentiment and price movements. Given these developments, we decided to revisit and reassess trading strategies, specifically Trend-following and Mean-reversion in Bitcoin published in 2022, which utilized data from November 2015 to February 2022. This new study explores how these strategies would have performed from November 2015 to August 2024, taking recent changes into account. The study also examines market changes between February 2022 and August 2024, highlighting developments since previous research. Additionally, it evaluates the influence of seasonality on Bitcoin’s price action, similar to our previous article – The Seasonality of Bitcoin. By analyzing these factors, we aim to provide deeper insights into the evolving behavior of the world’s leading cryptocurrency and guide investors through the complexities of today’s market environment.

High-yield bond ETFs represent a unique financial vehicle: they are highly liquid instruments that hold inherently illiquid securities, creating a fertile ground for predictable market behaviors. Our latest research uncovers an intriguing anomaly within these ETFs, similar to those observed in the stock market: overnight returns are systematically higher than intraday returns. This overnight anomaly in high-yield bonds is not only prevalent but also exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, primarily from Monday’s close to Tuesday’s open and from Tuesday’s close to Wednesday’s open. Additionally, this anomaly displays a reversal characteristic, where overnight performance is typically more robust following a negative close-to-close performance in the preceding period. These findings reveal potential opportunities for trading strategies that leverage these consistent overnight return patterns, offering new insights into high-yield bond trading dynamics.

Professor Robert Shiller’s CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings) ratio is well-known among the investment community. His methodology for assessing a valuation of the U.S. equity market is undoubtedly the most cited and discussed. Therefore, it’s not surprising that there exists quite a lot of papers that try to refine and expand the CAPE’s methodology. One such last attempt is the work of James White and Victor Haghani, whose research paper revolves around the use of a modified version of the Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio, termed P-CAPE. Their methodology aims to improve the estimation of long-term expected real returns of the stock market by incorporating the dividend payout ratio into the traditional CAPE metric.

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies, understanding market sentiment can provide a crucial edge. As investors and traders seek to anticipate the volatile movements of Bitcoin, innovative approaches are continuously explored. One such method involves leveraging Google Trends data to gauge public interest and sentiment towards Bitcoin. This approach assumes that search volume on Google not only reflects current interest but can also serve as a predictive tool for future price movements. This blog post delves into the intricacies of using Google Trends as a sentiment predictor, exploring its potential to forecast Bitcoin prices and discussing the broader implications of sentiment analysis in the financial market.

Investing in emerging markets (EM) or developed markets (DM) outside of the United States tends to follow cyclical trends. At times, it becomes popular and crowded to focus solely on U.S. stocks, while in other periods, the trend shifts to favor everything except U.S. equities. This inclination often relies on historical and past performance data, although it doesn’t guarantee identical outcomes in the future. But what drives these periods of popularity? When do U.S. markets outperform Emerging Markets or other Developed Markets? When do large-cap stocks outperform small-cap stocks, and when do growth stocks outperform value stocks? Are those ebbs and flows in the performance of major thematic investments somehow interlinked, and can we uncover some insights into why this occurs? Those are the questions we will try to answer in the following analysis.