An Investor’s Guide to Cryptocurrencies

17.February 2023

Cryptocurrencies are an asset class that isn’t easy to ignore in the modern world. In February 2023, the crypto market capitalization was at around $1.1 trillion, which is roughly half of the value of all U.S. notes and coins in circulation. With their properties quite different from other investment options, it might prove useful to an investor to understand and navigate this market well.  The authors Campbell R. Harvey, Tarek Abou Zeid, Teun Draaisma, Martin Luk, Henry Neville, Andre Rzym, and Otto Van Hemert in their paper An Investor’s Guide to Crypto (July, 2022), offer an overview surely interesting for anyone willing to enter this market.

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Investigating Price Reaction Around Bitcoin & Ethereum Events

15.February 2023

Cryptocurrencies are a high-risk and very speculative asset class that, from being used only by tech geeks worldwide, spread from small retail craziness of early adopters to institutional adoption and mainstream. Some claim it to be a world-changing concept with the utilization of blockchain (databases) and smart contracts that open a wide range of opportunities, from decentralizing finance to self-governing algorithms; some others point to unnecessary scams, money laundering, and bubbles. We have been covering the concepts and topics relating to crypto extensively. This article will continue our investigation of this interesting field. We would like to test how the price action looks around some of the events unique to the cryptocurrency world – namely the Bitcoin reward halvings and hard and soft forks in Bitcoin and Ethereum networks.

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What Is an Optimal Allocation to Cryptocurrencies?

18.January 2023

Cryptocurrencies are a very controversial asset class. Some people may hate it, others may glorify it, and a significant part may ignore it. But what’s the opportunity cost of complete ignorance? Are we able to numerically calculate it? That’s a hard question that Duchin, Solomon, Tu, and Wang tried to answer in their recent paper, and we will take a look at some of their findings and discuss it.

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How Much Are Bitcoin Returns Driven by News?

30.November 2022

The main theme of these days in the crypto world is unmistakenly clear, it’s the mayhem connected with the collapse of the FTX empire, insolvencies of various lenders, and questions about underlying holdings in GBTC OTC ETF and reserves of exchanges and Tether (or other stablecoins as well). With new information, nothing does paint a bright picture of this industry in the financial world now and in the near future. Calls for finally working regulations are getting stronger and stronger, while politicians (and central bankers) are still active on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) proposals. While Bitcoin survived several crypto winters, long-term investors are continuing their DCA-ing and “stashing Satoshis” Are they safe? Do they pay attention to the surrounding news? In our blog entry, we will focus on the question of how news impact Bitcoin returns, being both the most famous cryptocurrency and also the one with the highest market capitalization.

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Skewness/Lottery Trading Strategy in Cryptocurrencies

21.June 2022

A recent spring 2022 crisis in the cryptocurrency market emphasized the importance of market-neutral crypto trading strategies. It’s not enough just to HODL crypto market and hope for the everlasting bull market. Therefore, we continue our series of research articles about the cryptocurrency market and offer an analysis of the skewness anomaly. So after our description of the skewness effect in commodities, an article about the multi-asset skewness strategy, and observation of the skewness/lottery effect in ETFs, we have one more asset class, where we can find lottery/skewness anomaly – in cryptocurrencies.

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Trend-following and Mean-reversion in Bitcoin

15.March 2022

Indisputably, trend-following and mean-reversion are two key concepts in quantitative investing or technical analysis. What about the Bitcoin? Are there trend-following or mean-reversion patterns? Or are both effects present and co-exist? In this short research, we examine how Bitcoin’s price is affected by its maximal or minimal price over the previous 10 to 50 days. Our finding shows that when the BTC is at the local maxima, it tends to continue trending upwards. Furthermore, the local minima are also connected with abnormal price action.

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