Factor allocation

Today’s research introduces a refined ETF asset momentum strategy by combining a correlation filter with selective shorting. While traditional long-short momentum strategies usually yield suboptimal results, the long leg proves effective on its own, and the correlation filter demonstrates significant value for improving the timing and performance of the short leg. We propose a final strategy of going long on 4 top-performing ETFs while selectively shorting 1 ETF with a 30% weight. Our findings demonstrate that this combined long-short selective hedge strategy significantly outperforms standalone momentum strategies and the benchmark, delivering superior risk-adjusted returns and effective hedging during unfavorable market conditions.

The year 2024 is nearly behind us, so it’s an excellent time for a short recapitulation. In the previous 12 months, we have been busy again (as usual) and have published over 70 short analyses of academic papers and our own research articles. The end of the year is a good opportunity to summarize 10 of them, which were the most popular (based on the Google Analytics ranking). The top 10 is diverse, as usual; once again, we hope that you may find something you have not read yet …

Active Share is a popular metric used to gauge how actively managed a portfolio is compared to its benchmark, but its predictive power for fund performance is questionable. Our research suggests that high Active Share often reflects exposure to systematic equity factors rather than genuine stock-picking skill. Additionally, inaccuracies in benchmark selection can distort the metric’s insights, making it unreliable as a standalone measure. A more effective approach is to conduct a factor analysis of alpha to better understand a manager’s performance and true sources of over/underperformance.

Seasonality is a well-known phenomenon in the commodity markets, with certain sectors exhibiting predictable patterns of performance during specific times of the year. These patterns often attract investors who aim to capitalize on anticipated price movements, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. But what if you could stay one step ahead of the crowd? By front-running these seasonal trends—buying sectors with expected positive performance (or shorting those with negative seasonality) before their favorable months begin—you can potentially gain a significant edge over traditional seasonality-based strategies. In this blog post, we explore how to construct and backtest a systematic strategy using commodity sector ETFs to exploit this seasonal front-running effect.

Short sellers often have a bad reputation, seen as market disruptors who profit from declining prices. Yet, they play a crucial role in making markets more efficient by identifying overvalued assets and correcting mispricings. A recent study uncovers another surprising aspect of their behavior: rather than just demanding liquidity, the most informed short sellers actually provide it. Using transaction-level data, the research shows that these traders supply liquidity, especially on news days and when trading on known anomalies, challenging the conventional view of short sellers as merely aggressive market participants.

In this article, we explore the historical performance of sector momentum strategies and examine how their alpha has diminished over time. By analyzing the underlying causes behind this decline, we identify key factors contributing to the underperformance. Most importantly, we introduce an enhanced approach to sector momentum, demonstrating how this solution significantly improves the performance of an ETF sector momentum strategy, making it once again an effective tool for systematic investors.