Market timing

## Trading Index (TRIN) – Formula, Calculation & Trading Strategy in Python

14.December 2020

Short-term mean reversion trading on equity indexes is a popular trading style. Often, price-based technical indicators like RSI, CCI are used to assess if the stock market is in overbought or oversold conditions. A new research article written by Chainika Thakar and Rekhit Pachanekar explores a different indicator – TRIN, which compares the number of advancing and declining stocks to the advancing and declining volume. TRIN’s advantage is that it’s cross-sectionally based and its calculation uses not only price but also volume information. Thakar& Pachanekar’s research paper is useful for fans of indicator’s based trading strategies and offers a short introduction to TRIN’s calculation together with an example of mean-reversion market timing strategy written in a python code.

Authors: Chainika Thakar, Rekhit Pachanekar

Title: Trading Index (TRIN) – Formula, Calculation & Strategy in Python

## The Active vs Passive: Smart Factors, Market Portfolio or Both?

11.December 2020

While there may be debates about passive and active investing, and even blogs about the numbers of active funds that were outperformed by the market, the history taught us that the outperformance of active or passive investing is cyclical. As a proxy for the active investing, the new Quantpedia’s research paper examines factor strategies and their smart allocation using fast or slow time-series momentum signals, the relative weights based on the strength of the signals and even blending the signals. While the performance can be significantly improved, using those smart approaches, the factors still got beaten by the market in both US and EAFE sample. However, the passive approach did not show to be superior. The factor strategies and market are significantly negatively correlated and impressively complement each other. The combined Smart Factors and market portfolio vastly outperforms both factors and market throughout the sample in both markets. With the combined approach, the ever-present market falls can be at least mitigated or profitable thanks to the factors.

## Not all Gold Shines in Crisis Times – COVID-19 Evidence

23.October 2020

Gold is a hot topic nowadays, but that is not a surprise given the worldwide situation. Gold is by the majority considered as a hedge, safe haven and often recognized for its ability to preserve the value in the long term. However, gold itself is not the only gold-related investable asset. There are numerous gold-related stocks – producers, explorers and developers. Common sense might suggest that the price of such stocks should reflect the gold prices, but the novel research by Baur and Trench (2020) shows that this logic is not always correct. Results suggest that gold equities cannot be considered as safe havens and investors differentiate between producers, explorers and developers during regular times. On the other hand, during the recent (and lasting) stressful COVID period, all types of gold stocks moved similarly to gold.

Authors: Dirk G. Baur and Allan Trench

Title: Not all Gold Shines in Crisis Times – COVID-19 Evidence

## Pre-Election Drift – Video

28.August 2020

The presidential campaign is becoming hotter as we are moving closer to this year’s election. But we still have enough time to dig deeper into data about the past elections and prepare for autumn. Therefore, we have prepared a short video recapitulation of our paper on the pre-election drift.

## Secular Decline in Yields around FOMC Meetings

24.April 2020

Federal Open Market Committee meetings (aka FED meetings) have a significant influence on the number of different assets (see for example our article related to drift in equities during FED meetings). The main channel which FED uses to influence the US economy is the level of short term interest rates. Therefore, it’s not a surprise that FED meetings have influence also on long-term interest rates. But just how big? Bigger than most people think. We are presenting one interesting research paper written by Sebastian Hillenbrand, which shows that the whole secular decline in equity yields and long-term interest rates since 1980 was realized entirely in a 3-day window around FOMC meetings. Now, that’s called the influence …

Author: Hillenbrand

Title: The Secular Decline in Long-Term Yields around FOMC Meetings

## Do Prediction Markets Predict Macroeconomic Risk?

4.April 2020

The U.S. (and the world’s) economy is currently entering a recession. Right now, everybody can see it, the only question is how deep it will be. But is it possible in a real-time predict if the economy will enter a recession? And will that information help us to better set % allocation of equities in our portfolio? Most of the macroeconomic data shows recession in macroeconomic reports with a significant lag. There are multiple different forecasting models which try to predict recession or at least estimate the probability that we are entering into one. We are presenting one interesting research paper written by Jonathan Hartley which shows that prediction markets (betting markets created for the purpose of trading the outcome of events) can be successfully used as a complementary tool in various economic forecasting tools. Prediction markets can be used to measure risk in U.S. equities, credit spreads, the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and U.S. dollar foreign exchange rates.

Author: Hartley

Title: Recession Prediction Markets and Macroeconomic Risk in Asset Prices