Market timing

What’s the Best Factor for High Inflation Periods? – Part II

13.April 2022

This second article offers a different look at high inflation periods, which we already analyzed in What’s the Best Factor for High Inflation Periods? – Part I. The second part looks at factor performance during two 10-year periods of high inflation. What’s our main takeaway? The best hedge for a high inflation period is the value or momentum factor. Other promising factors (energy sector, small-cap stocks, or long-run reversal) don’t perform as consistently as value and momentum.

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Trend-following and Mean-reversion in Bitcoin

15.March 2022

Indisputably, trend-following and mean-reversion are two key concepts in quantitative investing or technical analysis. What about the Bitcoin? Are there trend-following or mean-reversion patterns? Or are both effects present and co-exist? In this short research, we examine how Bitcoin’s price is affected by its maximal or minimal price over the previous 10 to 50 days. Our finding shows that when the BTC is at the local maxima, it tends to continue trending upwards. Furthermore, the local minima are also connected with abnormal price action.

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Are There Seasonal Intraday or Overnight Anomalies in Bitcoin?

18.February 2022

At Quantpedia, we love seasonality effects, and our screener includes several strategies that exploit them. These anomalies are fascinating since they usually offer a favorable risk and reward ratio and are commonly invested only during short periods. Frequently, these strategies are valuable additions to portfolios because they are not that sensitive to overall market performance. This short article presents a brief examination of some possible Bitcoin seasonalities.

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How to Utilize Anticipated ETF Rebalances

10.February 2022

For many investors, passive investing can be a no-brainer and is suggested by many, especially those who think that the walk is random. However, it does not mean that the passive investors do not trade – the ETFs trade instead of them. The indexes that are being tracked are rebalanced to account for changes in the market cap, mergers, delistings, or IPOs. The novel research shows that it matters how the ETFs trade. Even though the differences are not that big, for a long-term horizon, the differences compound. For active traders, the paper shows that the rebalancing of the ETFs could be utilized by trading in advance.

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Factor Performance in Bull and Bear Markets

27.January 2022

Do common equity factors suffer during bear markets? Undoubtedly, the market factor is a rather unpleasant investment during bear markets, but what about the long-short factors? Are they able to deliver performance? The research paper by Geertsema and Lu (2021) provides several answers and interesting insights.

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