Our article explores a simple mean reversion trading strategy applied to FX futures, focusing on identifying undervalued and overvalued currencies to generate returns. Using FX futures rather than spot rates allows for the inclusion of interest rate differentials, simplifying the analysis. The strategy employs two position-sizing methods—linear and exponential—both rebalanced monthly based on currency deviations from their mean. While the linear method offers stability, its returns are limited. In contrast, the exponential method, despite higher risk and deeper drawdowns, ultimately delivers stronger growth and better overall performance by leveraging the mean reversion tendencies of FX pairs.

Our research will explore the intriguing phenomenon of the Pre-Holiday effect in commodities, particularly crude oil and gasoline. Historical data reveals a short-term price drift prior to major U.S. holidays, suggesting a trend in these markets. We hypothesize that this anomaly may be driven by increased demand for oil and its derivatives, such as gasoline, as people prepare for travel, often by car, during the holiday season. This seasonal behavior offers unique opportunities for market participants.

In this article, we explore the historical performance of sector momentum strategies and examine how their alpha has diminished over time. By analyzing the underlying causes behind this decline, we identify key factors contributing to the underperformance. Most importantly, we introduce an enhanced approach to sector momentum, demonstrating how this solution significantly improves the performance of an ETF sector momentum strategy, making it once again an effective tool for systematic investors.

Momentum is one of the most researched market anomalies, well-known and widely accepted in both public and academic sectors. Its concept is straightforward: buy an asset when its price rises and sell it when it falls. The goal is to take advantage of these trends to achieve better returns than a simple buy-and-hold strategy. Unfortunately, over the last decades, we have been observers of the diminishing returns of the momentum strategies in all asset classes. In this article, we will present an intra-market correlation filter that can help significantly improve commodity momentum performance and return this strategy once again into the spotlight.

Over the past few years, significant shifts in the financial landscape have reshaped the dynamics of global markets, including the cryptocurrency sector. Events such as the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation rates, the soft landing scenario in the US economy, and the recent Bitcoin halving have all profoundly impacted market sentiment and price movements. Given these developments, we decided to revisit and reassess trading strategies, specifically Trend-following and Mean-reversion in Bitcoin published in 2022, which utilized data from November 2015 to February 2022. This new study explores how these strategies would have performed from November 2015 to August 2024, taking recent changes into account. The study also examines market changes between February 2022 and August 2024, highlighting developments since previous research. Additionally, it evaluates the influence of seasonality on Bitcoin’s price action, similar to our previous article – The Seasonality of Bitcoin. By analyzing these factors, we aim to provide deeper insights into the evolving behavior of the world’s leading cryptocurrency and guide investors through the complexities of today’s market environment.

Throughout history, geopolitical stress and tension has been ever-present. From ancient civilizations to today’s world, global dynamics have been largely shaped by wars, terrorism, and trade disputes. Financial markets, as always, have keenly observed and been significantly influenced as a result.

Our article delves into understanding this relation between geopolitical stress and financial markets, particularly the equity market. To briefly explain our approach, we seek to quantify geopolitical stress through an observable Geopolitical Stress Index (GSI). Using this index, we can explore the relation between geopolitical sentiment, good and bad, and instruments available on financial market. Lastly, we seek to see if geopolitical sentiment is something that can be used to impact trading decisions and develop profitable trading strategies.