Pragmatic asset allocation

Commodities represent a vital but highly volatile asset class, characterized by pronounced cyclicality, lack of yield, and susceptibility to severe macroeconomic drawdowns. While cross-sectional (relative) momentum is a well-documented anomaly, its application in commodities often forces portfolios to hold the “least declining” assets during broad-based bear markets, resulting in unacceptable tail-risk. This study empirically evaluates the efficacy of a Dual Momentum framework—combining relative strength ranking with an absolute time-series trend filter—applied to a diversified suite of commodity sector ETFs (DBA, DBB, DBE, DBP) from 2007 to 2026. We demonstrate that while pure relative momentum exhibits high parameter sensitivity and inconsistent benchmark outperformance, the inclusion of an absolute momentum filter structurally mitigates drawdowns and universally outperforms a static, equally weighted benchmark across all tested parameter combinations. The findings suggest that Dual Momentum provides a robust, parameter-agnostic framework for portfolio managers seeking tactical commodity exposure with superior risk-adjusted return profiles.

Our study explores a weekly-rebalanced dual-momentum-based Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA) strategy applied to a diversified set of ETFs. The strategy selects assets based on relative momentum and applies an absolute momentum filter to avoid declining investments. Ultimately, a single combined strategy was created by merging two sub-strategies, incorporating both shorter- and longer-term momentum signals. Backtesting over an extended period demonstrates that this approach delivers attractive risk-adjusted returns, achieving attractive Sharpe and Calmar ratios, while maintaining lower drawdowns compared to a simple equally weighted benchmark.

Pragmatic Asset Allocation is a systematic, multi-asset investment strategy designed to adapt dynamically to evolving market conditions. Rather than maintaining a static equity exposure, the model actively allocates capital across a diversified set of asset classes—including equities, bonds, commodities, gold, and cash-like instruments—using momentum-based signals and disciplined periodic rebalancing. The strategy’s primary objective is to deliver attractive long-term returns while materially reducing drawdowns during adverse market environments.

It has now been two highly volatile years since we first published our paper on PAA, making this an opportune moment to review the strategy’s performance over the past year.