Can Google Trends Sentiment Be Useful as a Predictor for Cryptocurrency Returns?

17.April 2024

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrencies, understanding market sentiment can provide a crucial edge. As investors and traders seek to anticipate the volatile movements of Bitcoin, innovative approaches are continuously explored. One such method involves leveraging Google Trends data to gauge public interest and sentiment towards Bitcoin. This approach assumes that search volume on Google not only reflects current interest but can also serve as a predictive tool for future price movements. This blog post delves into the intricacies of using Google Trends as a sentiment predictor, exploring its potential to forecast Bitcoin prices and discussing the broader implications of sentiment analysis in the financial market.

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Systematic Hedging of the Cryptocurrency Portfolio

13.March 2024

Cryptocurrencies are already one of the major asset classes. They fill the top pages of magazines and are a topic of a day to day conversation. There are a lot of ways to buy them through a lot of different channels. But some of the hardcore HODLers like to keep their coin portfolio safe – they buy a portfolio of cryptocurrencies and hold them in cold storage. It has a lot of advantages (you will probably not become a victim of hacking if your crypto coins are in cold storage in your wall safe) but also some disadvantages (your cold storage device can become unreadable or destroyed). One of the disadvantages of cold storage is that while you hold the cryptocurrencies in your cold storage, you are exposed to the price swings of the cryptocurrency market (which can be tremendous). But do you need to have this risk, especially when the market is at an all-time high? What if you smartly hedged a portion of your portfolio? The goal of this article is to serve as an inspiration for a hedging strategy for your cold storage cryptocurrency portfolio. We do not say this is the only way to run a hedging strategy, but we would like to inspire you to start thinking about this possibility even when you have not considered it yet. Are you ready? Then let’s go 🙂

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Exploration of CTA Momentum Strategies Using ETFs

18.January 2024

Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds are commonly associated with managed futures investing; however, beyond commodities, they have the flexibility to venture into other assets, including interest rates, currencies, fixed income, and equity indices. Most of the CTA strategies are trend-following, taking long positions in markets experiencing upward trends and short positions in markets undergoing downward trends, with the expectation that these trends will persist. CTA funds demonstrate a negative correlation with traditional assets, especially evident during periods of pronounced downturns in equity markets, and this characteristic positions them as an appealing alternative investment option, serving as a protective measure against extreme events in financial markets. We aim to explore these trend-following strategies by creating a “CTA proxy” using ETFs across all asset classes. Using ETFs allows for maintaining the diversification of CTA funds and represents an alternative with easier data availability compared to futures contracts. Additionally, we are very interested in seeing the contribution of the short leg of CTA sub-strategies to performance, as we have a hypothesis that we can significantly improve the risk-return profile of the CTA strategies by removing a short leg portion of the strategy from some assets.

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Pragmatic Asset Allocation Model for Semi-Active Investors

11.January 2024

The primary motivation behind our study stems from an observation of the Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA) strategies throughout the existing papers – the majority of them require relatively frequent rebalancing from the point of view of the ordinary investor. Portfolio rebalancing is usually done on a weekly or monthly basis, and while this period may seem overly boring and slow for the majority of traders (who like to trade on intraday or daily basis), fans of GTAA strategies are not traders; they are investors. Of course, some like to follow the ebbs and flows of the market. But a lot of investors just want to have a life. The financial market is not their hobby. However, on the other hand, they also do not want to hold just the passive buy & hold portfolio. Recognizing the demand for the semi-active strategy, we introduce our novel Pragmatic Asset Allocation.

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What’s the Key Factor Behind the Variation in Anomaly Returns?

13.October 2023

In a game of poker, it is usually said that when you do not know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy. The world of finance is not different. It is good to know who your counterparties are and which investors/traders drive the return of anomalies you focus on. We discussed that a few months ago in a short blog article called “Which Investors Drive Factor Returns?“. Different sets of investors and their approaches drive different anomalies, and we have one more paper that helps uncover the motivation of investors and traders for trading and their impact on anomaly returns.

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The Seasonality of Bitcoin

13.September 2023

Seasonality effects, one of the most fascinating phenomena in the world of finance, have captured the attention of investors and researchers worldwide. Since these anomalies are often driven by factors other than general market trends, they usually don’t correlate strongly with market movements, which can help reduce the portfolio’s overall risk. Following the theme of our previous article Are There Seasonal Intraday or Overnight Anomalies in Bitcoin?, we decided to extend the data and conduct a more in-depth analysis of our earlier findings. This article explores potential seasonal patterns related to Bitcoin, focusing on whether these patterns are influenced by factors such as current market trends or the level of volatility in the market.

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