Trendfollowing

Exploration of CTA Momentum Strategies Using ETFs

18.January 2024

Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) funds are commonly associated with managed futures investing; however, beyond commodities, they have the flexibility to venture into other assets, including interest rates, currencies, fixed income, and equity indices. Most of the CTA strategies are trend-following, taking long positions in markets experiencing upward trends and short positions in markets undergoing downward trends, with the expectation that these trends will persist. CTA funds demonstrate a negative correlation with traditional assets, especially evident during periods of pronounced downturns in equity markets, and this characteristic positions them as an appealing alternative investment option, serving as a protective measure against extreme events in financial markets. We aim to explore these trend-following strategies by creating a “CTA proxy” using ETFs across all asset classes. Using ETFs allows for maintaining the diversification of CTA funds and represents an alternative with easier data availability compared to futures contracts. Additionally, we are very interested in seeing the contribution of the short leg of CTA sub-strategies to performance, as we have a hypothesis that we can significantly improve the risk-return profile of the CTA strategies by removing a short leg portion of the strategy from some assets.

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Pragmatic Asset Allocation Model for Semi-Active Investors

11.January 2024

The primary motivation behind our study stems from an observation of the Global Tactical Asset Allocation (GTAA) strategies throughout the existing papers – the majority of them require relatively frequent rebalancing from the point of view of the ordinary investor. Portfolio rebalancing is usually done on a weekly or monthly basis, and while this period may seem overly boring and slow for the majority of traders (who like to trade on intraday or daily basis), fans of GTAA strategies are not traders; they are investors. Of course, some like to follow the ebbs and flows of the market. But a lot of investors just want to have a life. The financial market is not their hobby. However, on the other hand, they also do not want to hold just the passive buy & hold portfolio. Recognizing the demand for the semi-active strategy, we introduce our novel Pragmatic Asset Allocation.

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What’s the Key Factor Behind the Variation in Anomaly Returns?

13.October 2023

In a game of poker, it is usually said that when you do not know who the patsy is, you’re the patsy. The world of finance is not different. It is good to know who your counterparties are and which investors/traders drive the return of anomalies you focus on. We discussed that a few months ago in a short blog article called “Which Investors Drive Factor Returns?“. Different sets of investors and their approaches drive different anomalies, and we have one more paper that helps uncover the motivation of investors and traders for trading and their impact on anomaly returns.

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The Seasonality of Bitcoin

13.September 2023

Seasonality effects, one of the most fascinating phenomena in the world of finance, have captured the attention of investors and researchers worldwide. Since these anomalies are often driven by factors other than general market trends, they usually don’t correlate strongly with market movements, which can help reduce the portfolio’s overall risk. Following the theme of our previous article Are There Seasonal Intraday or Overnight Anomalies in Bitcoin?, we decided to extend the data and conduct a more in-depth analysis of our earlier findings. This article explores potential seasonal patterns related to Bitcoin, focusing on whether these patterns are influenced by factors such as current market trends or the level of volatility in the market.

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Comparison of Commodity Momentum Strategy in the U.S. and Chinese Markets

12.May 2023

The commodity momentum strategy is a crucial driving force behind Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies, as it capitalizes on the persistence of price trends in various commodity markets. By identifying and exploiting these trends, CTAs can achieve robust returns and diversification benefits. In their new paper, John Hua FAN and Xiao QIAO (February 2023) present their perspective and understanding of cross-country and cross-sector influences on the behavior of commodity momentum beyond established commodity fundamentals focusing on U.S. and China markets.

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Can We Backtest Asset Allocation Trading Strategy in ChatGPT?

31.March 2023

It’s always fun to push the boundaries of technology and see what it can do. The AI chatbots are the hot topic of current discussion in the quant blogosphere. So we have decided to test OpenAI’s ChatGPT abilities. Will we persuade it to become a data analyst for us? While we may not be there yet, it’s clear that AI language models like ChatGPT can soon revolutionize how we approach to finance and data analysis.

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