160 Years of Wars and Disasters in Markets

27.January 2023

Life is not always rosy; many tragedies and unexpected events hurt individuals and society. While some are hardly avoidable, such as natural disasters, some others as wars, are generally only functions of hate and greed. In the case of predictable events, risk measures can be employed, but unexpected outbreaks of aggression can hardly be hedged across the spectrum of different financial assets. We had previously touched on a similar topic and looked at some historical geopolitical shocks and price reactions around that time. Now, we would like to do a short review of an interesting 140-page paper by Dat Mai and Kuntara Pukthuanthong (2022), which, while not providing actionable strategy, provides insightful retrospection and takes war topic modeling to the higher level, covering developing narratives and influence factors extensively.

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Size Factor vs. Monetary Policy Regime

25.January 2023

We have brought attention to the importance of evaluating factors models in different market regimes, and now, we will take a closer look at the size factor. Size [SMB (small minus big)] factor is a popular investment choice for asset investigation by many portfolio managers worldwide. The Size earned prominence in Fama and French’s three and five-factor models, and enjoy the continued discussion about its place in today’s portfolio construction. But it’s crucially important for investors seeking to capture the Size premium to realize that it is dependent on the monetary policy being pursued by the Federal Reserve, as the monetary easing seems to induce a Size premium.

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What Is an Optimal Allocation to Cryptocurrencies?

18.January 2023

Cryptocurrencies are a very controversial asset class. Some people may hate it, others may glorify it, and a significant part may ignore it. But what’s the opportunity cost of complete ignorance? Are we able to numerically calculate it? That’s a hard question that Duchin, Solomon, Tu, and Wang tried to answer in their recent paper, and we will take a look at some of their findings and discuss it.

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Which ESG Funds Perform Greenwashing?

13.January 2023

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing is rapidly growing in popularity. As more investors grow interested in the ESG investing, the funds theoretically have more reason to highlight their engagement with the ESG-related activities. In the research paper by Andrikogiannopoulou et al. (2022), authors first use textual analysis to assess how and how much the funds talk about ESG-related topics in their prospectuses, and then they compare this measure with the funds’ actual ESG engagement. The discrepancy between the words in their prospectus (high rate of mentioning ESG investing-related topics) and the fund’s acts (not being as green as illustrated in the prospectus) allows the authors to identify the greenwashing funds and take a closer look at their performance.

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Quantpedia’s Research in 2022

9.January 2023

Dear readers & clients,

The beginning of the new year is usually a traditional time for recapitulation. The year 2022 was a really challenging one on the financial markets, filled with unexpected events (Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or surge in inflation etc.). But I am again really proud of my whole team for their work as we continue fulfilling our primary mission to process academic research related to quant&algo trading to a more user-friendly form.

Last year was again really productive…

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Defining Market Cycles Out of Sample

6.January 2023

We have already published a few articles about how the different market cycles affect the performance of your portfolio and performance of market factors. So far, these states of the market were identified in-sample, with the benefit of hindsight. The full methodology of how we defined bull/ bear market, low/ high inflation, and rising/ falling interest rates is described in this article.

Today, we are going to define the same market states out-of-sample. We will describe our methodology and the thinking behind it all in this article. Both in sample and out of sample market cycle analysis may be useful for making investment decisions. It’s crucial to understand the differences and how to use this kind of analysis to your benefit.

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