Silicon vs. Satoshi: Tactical Asset Rotation Between NASDAQ-100 and Bitcoin

2.July 2026

In the modern retail attention economy, Bitcoin and the NASDAQ-100 are not merely separate assets; they are competing narratives. Both appeal to the same pool of speculative capital, the same appetite for asymmetric upside, and the same behavioral forces of FOMO, herding, and recency bias. When technology stocks dominate the imagination, capital clusters around QQQ and the artificial intelligence trade. When Bitcoin breaks out, the crowd’s attention pivots toward crypto’s promise of explosive upside.

This paper tests whether that rotation in attention leaves a systematic footprint. Using Donchian breakout signals across QQQ and Bitcoin, with cash as a fallback during periods of consolidation, we examine whether investors can harvest momentum without remaining permanently exposed to either asset’s full drawdown profile. The results suggest that the answer is yes: retail attention does not move randomly. It rotates, it concentrates, and—when measured through price breakouts—it can be systematically exploited.

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Quantpedia Premium Update – June 30th

30.June 2026

Five new strategies have been added. Three new related research paper have been included into existing strategy reviews and six new short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, six trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks.

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Guardrails Make the Researcher: What an AI Agent Got Right (And Wrong) Replicating Nine Equity Anomalies

30.June 2026

An autonomous research agent replicated nine published US-equity anomalies on clean, survivorship-free data. The question is not only what it found (out-of-sample decay is the rule, and on a faithful build none survive — the lone apparent survivor turned out to be a construction error the discipline caught) but whether you can trust an agent to find it, and the checks that decide the answer.

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Understanding Investment Products Through Factor Analysis and Replication

26.June 2026

Factor-based portfolio analysis provides a structured framework for understanding the drivers of investment performance, risk, and long-term behavior. This article applies a set of complementary methods to decompose portfolios into their underlying exposures, evaluate their statistical and economic significance, and assess their behavior across different market regimes.

The analysis is conducted using Quantpedia Pro tools, specifically The Multi Factor Analysis, Factor Analysis Models, The 100-year Portfolio Analysis and The ETF Replication. Together, these methods form a unified factor-based framework that connects decomposition, validation, and replication of portfolio returns. This approach allows for a more robust understanding of portfolio structure and highlights the extent to which observed performance can be explained through systematic factor exposures.

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Why Mean-Variance Optimization Breaks Down

23.June 2026

Mean-Variance Optimization remains the intellectual cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, yet its real-world deployment via plug-in MVO often delivers unstable, over-leveraged portfolios that collapse out-of-sample. The core insight from VertoxQuant’s analysis is profound: raw plug-in MVO does not merely propagate estimation error—it systematically amplifies it. This error-maximization phenomenon occurs because the optimizer’s inverse-covariance operator assigns extreme weights to directions that appear low-risk, which, in finite samples, are dominated by noise rather than signal. For academics, this reveals a fundamental statistical pathology; for practitioners, it explains why backtests sparkle while live portfolios bleed.

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Testing an AI-Assisted Research Workflow for Multi-Asset Pullback Strategy Discovery

19.June 2026

This study investigates short-term price reversals—temporary retracements following adverse daily returns—and develops a systematic trading framework to capture this effect across multiple asset classes. Using daily data from six liquid ETFs spanning equities, fixed income, currencies, gold, and commodities over the period 2006–2025, the strategy applies a long-term trend filter based on a 200-day moving average combined with a multi-day pullback trigger. Trades are executed dynamically with volatility-adjusted position sizing and equal-weighted allocation across active signals. Parameter sweeps, sensitivity analyses, and sub-period tests are conducted to evaluate the robustness of the approach, including variations in moving average length, number of consecutive down days, holding periods, and alternative momentum indicators such as short-term RSI. The study also explores the practical integration of AI tools— ChatGPT and Claude—to assist in research, analysis, and visualization, assessing their effectiveness in generating coherent quantitative insights.

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