Six new strategies have been added. Six new related research papers have been included into existing strategy reviews and three short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, three trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks.

“Si vis pacem, para bellum”, is an old Roman proverb translated to English as “If you want peace, prepare for war”, and it is the main idea behind the military policy of a lot of modern national states. In the current globally interconnected world, waging a real “hot war” has very often really negative trade and business repercussions (as the Russian Federation realized in 2022). Still, even though wars among developed nations are luckily not as popular as they used to be, modern states heavily invest in their own defense. Nobody wants to be caught military unprepared in case of a local or global geopolitical crisis. A strong military should bring a safe environment to do business, and trade should flourish uninterrupted. But are all those national military expenditures financially rewarded? Do stock markets of countries with a strong military outperform their peers? That’s the question we have decided to answer in the following analysis.

Machine learning models have been successfully employed to cross-sectionally predict stock returns using lagged stock characteristics as inputs. The analyzed paper challenges the conventional wisdom that more training data leads to superior machine learning models for stock return predictions. Instead, the research demonstrates that training market capitalization group-specific machine learning models can yield superior results for stock-level return predictions and long-short portfolios. The paper showcases the impact of model regularization and highlights the importance of careful model design choices.

Traditional asset pricing literature has yielded numerous anomaly variables for predicting stock returns, but real-world outcomes often disappoint. Many of these predictors work best in small-cap stocks, and their profitability tends to decline over time, particularly in the United States. As market efficiency improves, exploiting these anomalies becomes harder. The fusion of machine learning with finance research offers promise. Machine learning can handle extensive data, identify reliable predictors, and model complex relationships. The question is whether these promises can deliver more accurate stock return predictions…

Hello all,

What have we accomplished in the last month?

– A new Quantpedia AI Chatbot unveiled
– 12 new Quantpedia Premium strategies have been added to our database
– 11 new related research papers have been included in existing Premium strategies during the last month
– Additionally, we have produced 7 new backtests written in QuantConnect code
– 6 new blog posts that you may find interesting have been published on our Quantpedia blog in the previous month

Six new strategies have been added. Six new related research papers have been included into existing strategy reviews and three short free blog posts have been published during last few weeks. Plus, three trading strategies have been backtested in QuantConnect in the previous two weeks.