Quantpedia started ten years ago in October 2011, and it was built out of necessity. The following article is a short recollection of the journey it has traveled. It’s a thought on the connection between creativity and our need to collect, analyze and categorize abstract ideas and how does it all help in the design of systematic trading strategies.

Each change in a strategic asset allocation of a professionally managed portfolio comes only after meticulous analysis. Firstly, we must understand the current status of the portfolio – how it behaved in the past, the strong and weak points of current allocation, and the main risk factor exposures. Then we can think about the future. We can decide how active we want to be, how large a risk budget we have at our disposal, and what asset classes we want to continue to focus on in our tactical models. Afterward comes the time for creativity – we can analyze opportunities and look for ideas for new models that complement what we already have. That’s time for Quantpedia Pro, and we will use this short case study and walk you through the few features that simplify the process of finding new ideas for trading strategies that fit your individual case.

Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates L.P. and the creator of the All-Weather investment strategy, recommends having some gold in a contemporary environment. He states, “In a world of ongoing pressure for policymakers across the globe to print and spend, zero interest rates, tectonic shifts in where global power lies, and conflict, gold has a unique role in protecting portfolios. It’s wise to hold some gold.” Therefore, one would ask a question, what is the optimal weight of gold in a portfolio?

Corporate insiders often have insight into a company’s private information, which might help them predict how the shares’ price will move in the coming days. However, laws and regulations are designed to keep them from trading based on this knowledge, as it would be unfair and hurt the company’s other shareholders. This includes the prohibition of insider trading or designing a 10b5-1 plan, which we will discuss in this article. Anyways, knowing about incoming losses or the will to create profits might lead these insiders to different practices that could be questioned. Let’s look at some of the newest research concerning these issues.

There are many ways one can lose money when investing, and exchange rates are one of the potential risk factors. Luckily, there are several ways to minimize this type of loss in your portfolio. Systematic FX hedging that uses currency factor strategies is a way of protecting an existing or anticipated position from an unwanted move in an exchange rate. It does not eliminate the risk of loss completely but helps to manage currency exposure better.

Order book information is crucial for traders, but it can be complex. With the numbers of stocks listed in stock exchanges, it is impossible to track all the available information for the human mind. Therefore, the order flows could be an interesting dataset for machine learning models. The novel research of Kolm, Turiel and Westray (2021) utilizes deep-learning for high-frequency return forecasts for 115 NASDAQ stocks based on order book information at the most granular level.

The paper has several key contributions. Firstly, it does not forecast one single return but rather a whole vector of returns – a term structure consisting of mid-price return forecasts at a specified horizon. The forecasted term structure provides essential information about the most optimal execution algorithms (or a trading strategy). According to the authors, forecasts have an „accuracy peak“ at two price changes, after which the accuracy declines. Secondly, the paper compares several methods: autoregressive model with exogenous inputs, MLP, LSTM, LSTM-MLP, stacked LSTM, and CNN-LSTM. Therefore, the article could also serve as a horse race across several possible forecasting methods. Lastly, using more traditional statistical approaches, the authors have identified a better forecasting performance in more information-rich stocks. As a result, this novel research could benefit many areas such as high-frequency trading (but trading costs must be considered), optimal execution strategy, or market-making.