Automated Trading Edge Analysis

2.September 2022

Have you ever wondered if your trading asset trends or mean-reverts? Everyone involved in trading or investments daily solves the task of – What trading strategy should I apply to my assets to generate profits? As always, we at Quantpedia will try to help you a bit with this never-ending task with our new tool/report, which will be unveiled next week for all Quantpedia Pro subscribers. The following article serves as an introduction to the methodology we will use to find new trading edges for you automatically.

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Should We Rebalance Index Changes Immediately?

30.August 2022

Passive index funds are believed to offer low fees, nearly limitless liquidity, very low trading costs and (most of the time) they beat most active managers. Although not all of the above are accurate, there are still many arguments in favour of passive indexing. However, what is often left forgotten are avoidable travails linked to index funds. In general, after an index rebalances, traditional cap-weighted index funds buy high and sell low. Their tendency to add recent highfliers and drop unloved value stocks is what causes investors to lose. Arnott et al. (2022) target the stock selection problem around index rebalancing and propose several ideas on how to adjust index strategies in order to earn above-market returns. They present simple ways to construct an index, thanks to which it is possible to reduce both negative effects of buy-high/sell-low dynamic and the turnover costs of cap-weighted indices.

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Are There Intraday and Overnight Seasonality Effects in China?

26.August 2022

At the moment, there is a lot of attention surrounding overnight anomalies in various types of financial markets. While such effects have been well documented in research, especially in US equities and derivatives, there are other asset classes that are not as well addressed. A recent (2022) paper from Jiang, Luo, and Ye contributed appealing evidence in favor of validating these phenomena in the Chinese market. We highlight the finding that the market MKT factor beta premium is earned exclusively overnight and tend to reverse intraday (and in smaller potency also value HML and profitability RMW), which is the same finding as for the US equities. In contrast, the size SMB factor exhibit significantly opposite pattern: positive intraday premium and negative overnight premium (and the same for investment CMA factor).

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How Retail Loses Money in Option Trading

23.August 2022

Over the last few years, we may have noticed a significant growth in retail investing. No surprise, the COVID pandemic outbreak increased the numbers even more, and undoubtedly, options trading is no exception. According to the authors (de Silva, Smith, Co), retail traders seek options expecting spikes in volatility and, for that reason, incline toward firms with more media coverage. Furthermore, their trading increases around the time of firms’ earnings announcements. As a result, market makers benefit from the behavior mentioned above, which causes a large flow of money from retail to market makers.

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100-Years of the United States Dollar Factor

16.August 2022

Finding high-quality data with a long history can be challenging. We have already examined How To Extend Historical Daily Bond Data To 100 years, How To Extend Daily Commodities Data To 100 years, and How To Build a Multi-Asset Trend-Following Strategy With a 100-year Daily History. Following the theme of our previous articles, we decided to extend historical data of a new factor, the Dollar Factor. This article explains how to combine multiple data sources to create a 100-year daily data history for the Dollar Factor (the value of the United States Dollar relative to its most important trading partners’ currencies), introduces data sources, and explains the methodology.

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ETFs: What’s Better? Full Replication vs. Representative Sampling?

10.August 2022

ETFs employ two fundamentally distinct methods to replicate their underlying benchmark index. The more conventional method, physical replication, involves holding all constituent securities (full replication) or a representative sample (representative sampling) of the benchmark index. In contrast, the synthetic replication achieves the benchmark return by entering into a total return swap or another derivative contract with a counterparty, typically a large investment bank. As we have previously discussed, there is no significant difference in the tracking ability between the physical and synthetic ETFs in the long term. And while our article compares physical and synthetic ETFs, it does not address the differences between the full replication ETFs and sampling ETFs. Therefore, one may ask a question: “When selecting a physically replicated ETF, which replication method is better, full replication or representative sampling?”

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