Factor Exposures of Thematic Indices

31.August 2021

Numerous new businesses are emerging related to autonomous traffic, clean energy, biotechnology, etc. Without any doubt, these new companies look promising and at least the technology behind them seems to be the future. Moreover, this novel trend is also supported by the most prominent index creators S&P and MSCI. Both providers have created numerous thematic indexes connected to these hot industries. The popularity has caused that ETFs are nowhere behind, and as a result, these thematic indexes could be easily tracked. However, popularity itself does not guarantee the best investment, and we should be interested in these indexes in greater detail. A vital insight provides the novel research paper of Blitz (2021). The findings are interesting – the thematic investors bet against quantitative investors or, more precisely, against the most common factors that are well-known from the asset pricing models.

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The Best Systematic Trading Strategies in 2021: Part 3

30.August 2021

In part 1 of our article, we analyzed tendencies and trends among the Top 10 quantitative strategies of 2021. Thanks to Quantpedia Pro’s screener, we published several interesting insights about them.

In part 2 of our article, we got deeper into the first five specific strategies, which are significantly outperforming the rest in 2021. 

Today, without any further thoughts, let’s proceed to the five single best performing strategies of 2021 as of August 2021.

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How to Use Exotic Assets to Improve Your Trading Strategy

26.August 2021

As we have mentioned several times, the best course of action for a quant analyst who wants to develop a new trading strategy is to understand a well-known investment anomaly/factor fundamentally and then improve it. Quantpedia is a big fan of transferring ideasĀ derived from academic research from one asset class to another. But that’s not the only possibility of improvement – we can try to embraceĀ Roger Ibbotson’s theory of popularity, which states that popular assets/securities are usually overpriced compared to less-known (exotic) assets/securities. Additionally, more professional investors usually follow popular assets, and this market segment is probably significantly more efficient.

So, we went in this direction. We took a well-known commodity momentum factor strategy and investigated its performance among commodity futures that were part of the S&P GSCI respectively BCOM commodity indexes and then compared the strategy’s performance with a variant that traded only non-indexed commodity futures. As we had expected, the trading strategy using exotic assets performed significantly better.

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Impact of US Inflation on Global Asset Returns

24.August 2021

A lot of attention is centred around inflation in the academic literature. If the inflation is low and oscillates around central banks’ targets, there is not a big fuss around it. However, when inflation gets high, it becomes a hot topic among investors.

The sharp recovery is also accompanied by high inflation, and recent coronavirus crisis recovery has become a hot topic among practitioners. But is the current period of higher inflation truly that bad? Dai and Medhat (2021) show that inflation is not as big a problem as it may seem in the long term. The authors have examined the relationship between US inflation and the performance of global assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities, REITs, factors or industry portfolios. Based on an analysis of both long-term and the most recent sample periods, the results suggest that most assets had positive real returns during high-inflation periods (and low-inflation as well).

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Modelling the Impact of Climate Change and Policies on GDP

19.August 2021

Climate change is becoming a central topic among economists, investors, politicians and the general public as well. Scientists warn us that we have to act immediately, but it is not that simple because becoming environmentally friendly is not cheap, and we are somewhat reluctant even though we have only one Earth. Moreover, while fighting climate change might be seen as a cost for developed economies, less developed economies frequently do not have many alternatives to fossil fuels.

A captivating insight to this topic offers a paper by Alestra et al. (2020) since the research provides a model to examine climate change scenarios for GDP forecasting, considering both GDP damage caused by the climate change itself and the impact of measures aimed to mitigate the climate change. It is crucial to emphasise that climate change endangers the economy. Therefore, even though fighting climate change can negatively affect the GDP, not acting might be even worse in the long run.

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